慎重派ファンド・マネージャーのボブ・ロドリゲスによる講演「注意!この先危険」をご紹介したのは、1ヶ月ほど前です。それなりに注目を集めたのか、最近になって同氏に対するインタビューがありましたので引用します。引用元の記事はBob Rodriguez on the Dangers in Today's Marketsです。(日本語は拙訳)





You have advised investors to be patient and cautious with respect to equities and fixed income. Are there any asset classes that you believe are attractively priced now, sufficient to provide the margin of safety that you mentioned at the beginning of “Caution: Danger Ahead?”

For what I would call a generalized investment fund, I view the equity markets as marginally attractive. As I tried to explain in the speech, we have just gone through the longest decline in P/E ratios in over half a century. Many are saying the stock market is attractive, because over the last 50 to 70 years the average P/E was 15 to 16 versus 12 to 13 now; therefore we have a discount. I would argue that to compare historical P/E ratios over this period is inappropriate, given the fundamental structures of our system are so dramatically different in terms of leverage.

I try to remind people that at the beginning of the depression in 1929, US debt-to-GDP was 16% after 11 straight years of surplus. And at the beginning of 1942, World War II, after fighting depression for 12 years, we were at 41% debt-to-GDP, and we didn't have any off-balance-sheet entitlement liabilities.

What we are looking at today is so far removed from any of these periods that I don't think it is an appropriate comparison. If you have a company with slow growth expectations, peak margins and business volatility, what type of P/E is given it? Typically, it is a lower P/E.

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