<質問者> 統計的な分析や洞察に基づくとは、どういうことでしょうか。

<マンガー> たしかに何かを決断するときには、うまく洞察できるものを考えます。しかし洞察できるかどうかが、事実上確率的に決まることもあります。そして繰り返しますが、ほんのわずかしか見つけられません。





Q: Based on statistical analysis and insight?

Well, certainly when we do make a decision, we think that we have an insight advantage. And it's true that some of the insight is statistical in nature. However, again, we find only a few of those.

It doesn't help us merely for favorable odds to exist. They have to be in a place where we can recognize them. So it takes a mispriced opportunity that we're smart enough to recognize. And that combination doesn't occur often.

But it doesn't have to. If you wait for the big opportunity and have the courage and vigor to grasp it firmly when it arrives, how many do you need? For example, take the top ten business investments Berkshire Hathaway's ever made. We would be very rich if we'd never done anything else - in two lifetimes.

So, once again, we don't have any system for giving you perfect investment judgment on all subjects at all times. That would be ridiculous. I'm just trying to give you a method you can use to sift reality to obtain an occasional opportunity for rational reaction.

If you take that method into something as competitive as common stock picking, you're competing with many brilliant people. So, even with our method, we only get a few opportunities. Fortunately, that happens to be enough.

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