<質問者> 投資上の判断をする際に、心理学をどのように取り入れていますか。「だれからも気に入られるコークのような製品を選ぶ」、ただそれだけの作業ではないと思うのですが。結局は、どこかに頭のいい人たちがたくさんいて、あなたが今日説明してくださったようにまさしく考えているわけですよね。成功企業を選びだす際には、そういった投資家が思考する上でのあやまちを見つけようとしているのですか。

<マンガー> USC[南カリフォルニア大学]でも話しましたが、投資がむずかしいのは、他社より良い事業を営んでいる企業を見いだすのは簡単だという点にあります。しかし株価が上がるや否や、どの株を買うのが最善かという問題は極めてむずかしいものとなります(過去記事)。




Q: How do you incorporate psychology in your investment decisions? I think it would be more than just picking products that will appeal to everybody like Coke. After all, there are a lot of smart people out there who obviously think just the way that you showed us today. So are you looking for failure in the thinking of their investors when you go about picking successful companies?

What makes investment hard, as I said at U.S.C., is that it's easy to see that some companies have better businesses than others. But the price of the stock goes up so high that, all of a sudden, the question of which stock is the best to buy gets quite difficult.

We've never eliminated the difficulty of that problem. And ninety-eight percent of the time, our attitude toward the market is … (that) we're agnostics. We don't know. Is GM valued properly vis-a-vis Ford? We don't know.

We're always looking for something where we think we have an insight which gives us a big statistical advantage. And sometimes it comes from psychology, but often it comes from something else. And we only find a few - maybe one or two a year. We have no system for having automatic good judgment on all investment decisions that can be made. Ours is a totally different system.

We just look for no-brainer decisions. As Buffett and I say over and over again, we don't leap seven-foot fences. Instead, we look for one-foot fences with big rewards on the other side. So we've succeeded by making the world easy for ourselves, not by solving hard problems.

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